How we estimate

What the labels mean

• Confirmed. A drinker confirmed this price in the last 30 days.
• Listed. The pub or its chain published this price. The date and the page are below.
• Estimated. Nobody has published this price. We modelled it, and it is not a quote.
• No price yet. Nobody has published or reported a price here yet.

A confirmation lasts 30 days. A listed menu price lasts 365 days. After that, we use whichever weaker label the remaining evidence supports.

What an estimate is

An estimate is a figure we modelled. Nobody published it, no drinker reported it, and the pub has not agreed to it. That is why it always reads est. £X and never a plain price, and why it never reaches the Pint Index, the cheapest-pint lists, or anything else that quotes a price as fact.

We model from two bases and try the narrower one first.

• Chain menu prices. Where a chain runs the pub and publishes a menu we are permitted to read, we take the middle price across that chain’s own published pints.
• Prices nearby. Otherwise we take the middle price for the pub’s own area.

A basis needs at least 3 published prices behind it. With fewer prices, we show no estimate.

What we are modelling from today

No chain is modelled yet. No chain we are permitted to read has published a pint price, so every estimate today comes from the area basis instead.

29 areas are modelled. Every other pub in the country carries no estimate, and says so.

Basis last computed 5 October 2026

How an estimate gets replaced

By a real price. When a pub publishes its menu, or a drinker logs what they paid and somebody else confirms it, the estimate goes and the published or confirmed figure takes its place.

The Pint Index publishes only prices with a named source and a date, and no estimate has ever entered it.